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| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
实现碳中和目标，将带来生产生活方式、经济和能源结构的巨大转变，其对宏观经济的冲击值得深入研究并及早进行前瞻性管理。短期看，绿色低碳转型可能推高通胀预期，非对称式影响产出与劳动生产率，并形成结构性失业，加大中央银行在价格与产出目标间权衡的难度；长期看，有序转型可缓释通胀压力，显著提高全要素生产率，改善就业结构，扩大央行利率政策空间。但如果气候风险与经济冲击交织，可能影响中长期的货币条件及政策传导渠道。对此，中央银行在完善货币政策框架、选择政策工具时，应着眼于全局进行谋划，注重引导和支持绿色低碳发展，完善相应的机制与规则设计：一是谨慎评估绿色低碳转型对通胀与产出的短期干扰，区分是需求还是供给冲击，判断冲击的持续时间和力度，采取有效应对措施。二是构建绿色金融正向激励机制，切实降低绿色企业与项目的融资成本，促进资金流向可持续资产，但以不损害央行职能与法定目标实现为限。三是支持碳交易市场发展，完善激励约束机制，合理引导资金和资源配置，促进产业、能源结构转型。四是稳步提高气候风险分析能力，逐步将气候风险纳入宏观审慎管理，统筹协调宏观审慎政策与微观审慎监管、金融风险有序处置的关系，逐步构建制度化的气候风险监管和评估体系。
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(1)例如，为植树造林、碳捕捉或其他基于自然的温室气体清除提供政策支撑，激励研发工业碳收集和储存技术，鼓励开发可再生能源（水电、太阳能等）等。
(2)资料来源：Supercharging public-private efforts in the race to net-zero and climate resilience[EB/OL].World Economic Forum, 2021-06-09.www.weforum.org.
(3)国际能源组织（The International Energy Agency）将搁浅资产定义为：在其正常使用寿命前结束使用、不再产生经济效益的投资，包括矿产开采权、化石燃料储备或可能导致高碳排放的基础设施等。搁浅资产一般分三种：一是监管搁浅，即由于环保政策变化形成的搁浅资产；二是经济搁浅，即由于相对成本或价格变化形成的搁浅资产；三是物理搁浅，即由于距离、洪水、干旱等导致的搁浅。
(4)数据来源：中华人民共和国国家统计局。
(5)数据来源：作者赴国家电网能源研究院调研所得。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F124.5;F832.31;X196
引用信息:
[1]姜晶晶.绿色低碳转型对宏观经济的冲击与中央银行政策应对——理论研究进展及评析[J].南方金融,2022,No.556(12):3-15.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目《金融网络结构下的中国系统风险模型构建》（项目编号：71873140）的资助
2023-01-05
2023-01-05
2023-01-05